The extension of the export ban in DRC triggers a collective rise in cobalt product quotes! Refined cobalt prices rise by over 15,000 in a single week [Weekly Observation]

SMM News on June 27: Last Saturday, the DRC announced a three-month extension of the cobalt export ban, which exceeded market expectations of a two-month extension. Influenced by this news, the quotes for cobalt-related products in the spot market collectively surged... SMM has compiled the price fluctuations of cobalt-related products this week after the ban was announced, as detailed below:

Refined cobalt:

Affected by the policy of extending the DRC's export ban, the spot quotes for refined cobalt surged significantly this week. According to SMM's spot quotes, as of June 27, the spot quotes for refined cobalt rose to 240,000-258,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 249,250 yuan/mt, up 15,750 yuan/mt from June 20, a 6.75% increase.

》Check SMM's spot quotes for cobalt and lithium

According to SMM, on the supply side, most refined cobalt smelters still maintain long-term contract supplies, with fewer spot quotes. After several trading days of observation, traders gradually resumed quoting and maintained a stance of refusing to budge on prices. On the demand side, at the beginning of the week, influenced by the policy, inquiries from traders and end-users significantly increased, and actual transactions were sporadically heard. However, by mid-week, as futures prices on the ZLJ futures market returned to volatility, market sentiment cooled down. Some traders reported a weakening in end-user inquiries, and actual transactions remained limited.

Overall, due to the currently high social inventory of refined cobalt in the midstream and no significant improvement in downstream demand, even with the major positive news of the DRC's export ban extension, most downstream producers still maintained a just-in-time procurement rhythm, and actual transactions remained weak. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will return to a volatile pattern next week.

Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride):

Cobalt sulphate:

According to SMM's spot quotes, influenced by the DRC's policy, the spot quotes for cobalt sulphate also rose this week. As of June 27, the spot quotes for cobalt sulphate rose to 48,000-50,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,000 yuan/mt, up 1,950 yuan/mt from June 20, a 4.14% increase.

》Check SMM's spot quotes for cobalt and lithium

According to SMM, on the supply side, smelters and traders maintained their quotes near the previous highs. On the demand side, orders from downstream ternary material enterprises still showed no significant improvement, and they temporarily chose to observe the market, mainly digesting previous inventory. Purchases of refined cobalt were still suspended due to its poor economic viability. Overall, after the policy announcement, market sentiment for cobalt sulphate improved significantly compared to last week. However, due to the rapid price increases from upstream suppliers and the uncertain future situation, downstream purchase willingness remained weak, and actual market transactions were limited. It is expected that cobalt sulphate prices will temporarily stabilize next week, awaiting feedback from actual market transactions.

Cobalt Chloride:

According to SMM spot quotes, this week's cobalt chloride spot prices also showed an upward trend. As of June 27, cobalt chloride spot prices rose to 60,450-62,000 yuan/mt, with the average price at 61,225 yuan/mt, up 2,875 yuan/mt from June 20, a 4.93% increase.

SMM learned that a few cobalt chloride companies are quoting 63,000-65,000 yuan/mt, while some salt plants have chosen to suspend quotations and continue observing the market. In terms of supply, smelters still have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to fewer transactions in the market; on the demand side, downstream enterprises have relatively sufficient inventory levels, actively inquiring about prices, but remain cautious about buying and selling. Price-wise, although upstream smelters have started quoting, these quotes merely reflect their expectations for current market prices. The specific price trend of cobalt chloride will need to be determined by actual transaction prices and inventory conditions of both upstream and downstream players. Co3O4:

According to SMM spot quotes, this week's Co3O4 spot prices saw a significant rise. As of June 27, Co3O4 spot prices increased to 201,200-207,200 yuan/mt, with the average price at 204,200 yuan/mt, up 13,850 yuan/mt from June 20, a 7.28% increase.

SMM learned that Co3O4 companies are still suspending quotations and shipments, with both upstream and downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude without any transactions. Affected by DRC policies, in terms of supply, Co3O4 plants have chosen to suspend quotations and observe the overall market sentiment and demand situation; on the demand side, LCO cathode plants have relatively low inventories, but the recent market is heavily influenced by sentiment, leading them to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Price-wise, there are currently no quotations in the market, but some Co3O4 plants indicate that shipment expectations may be around 210,000-220,000 yuan/mt. The specific price trend and changes will need to be determined once actual transactions occur.

In the long term, Co3O4 prices are still influenced by cobalt inventory. Whether the current industry inventory can support until December will be key to determining the price trend. News-wise,

SMM learned that on the evening of June 21, 2025, the DRC Strategic Mineral Market Regulation and Control Bureau (ARECOMS) decided to extend the temporary ban issued on February 22 for another three months from the effective date of this decision, applicable to all cobalt exports from mining in the DRC, regardless of whether they come from industrial, semi-industrial, small-scale, or artisanal mining, due to persistently high inventory levels in the market. Stimulated by this news, this week saw a significant rise in the prices of related products in the cobalt industry chain. On the first trading day after the policy announcement on June 23, the energy metals sector, led by listed cobalt companies, also surged, with the energy metals index rising as much as 4.99%, outperforming other industry sectors. Although the gains later pulled back, they remained around 4%.

In terms of individual stocks, Tengyuan Cobalt once hit the 20CM daily limit during trading, with Hanrui Cobalt, Huayou Cobalt, and others also following suit with gains. In response to the ban, Tengyuan Cobalt stated in an interview with the media that the company maintains a certain level of safety inventory, which will not affect normal production and operations in the short term.

Regarding the policy's impact on the market, SMM noted at the time that the DRC's extension of the cobalt export ban is a strong measure to address market imbalances and boost prices. Although it may help alleviate the supply surplus and support cobalt prices in the short term, it also places pressure on the global supply chain (especially Chinese smelters) and may sacrifice the DRC's own interests. In the short term, the DRC will not be able to obtain export revenue, and in the long term, if cobalt prices remain high, it may suppress cobalt market demand and reduce the DRC's export revenue. In the coming months, the global cobalt market will continue to seek a new balance amid supply tightness and price fluctuations. 》Click for details

Meanwhile, numerous institutions have also released forecasts. CITIC Securities stated that the DRC government's announcement to extend the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months will make it difficult for China to import cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products from the DRC between June and December. It is estimated that this move may affect 128,000 mt of cobalt exports from the DRC in 2025, potentially turning the global cobalt industry from a supply surplus to a shortage of 78,000 mt in 2025, and driving cobalt prices to start a second wave of gains.

Changjiang Securities even made a bold prediction that with the DRC's announcement to extend the cobalt export ban for three months, cobalt prices will experience a second round of increases and are expected to surpass previous highs. Compared to the cobalt price increase driven more by sentiment recovery after the ban was announced at the end of February, considering the vacuum period for raw material arrivals in H2 and the uncertainty of subsequent DRC policies, the current spot market contradictions may be more pronounced. Some downstream smelters have begun to experience a decline in capacity utilization rates due to raw material shortages. This round of cobalt price increases is expected to surpass previous highs and rise to 300,000 mt/ton.